The space boom has begun – but who’s in charge? 🛰️
Space is open for business, but the laws are full of gaps
A couple of months ago, I had a front-row seat to the future of business in space at The Economist Space Economy Summit in Portugal. Over two busy days, we unpacked the trillion-dollar opportunities unfolding beyond Earth’s orbit (ICYMI, read my full dispatch here).
But no conference is complete without the late-night debates that make you rethink everything. Between authentic Portuguese dinners and rounds of vinho verde in Lisbon, I found myself in deep conversations with the millennial space masters — the next generation of founders, investors, and policymakers shaping the final frontier. That’s where I met João Lupi, a lawyer qualified in Portugal and Brazil, and space law expert (along with Alice Casiraghi from last week’s podcast episode and this coming week’s Millennial Master, Joshua Western of SpaceForge).
João didn’t hold back. Space law, he argued, is stuck in the past — written for a world where only governments launched rockets, not a Wild West of commercial players staking their claims. The rules were designed for Cold War diplomacy, not asteroid mining, lunar settlements, or private companies (cough, SpaceX) running the show. But between drinks and debate, we barely scratched the surface.
This conversation needed more airtime, because space isn’t some far-off sci-fi concept anymore. It’s happening now, and whether we realise it or not, the decisions being made today will shape everything from global power dynamics to the next generation of industry. Millennials and Gen Z won’t be just spectators in this — we’ll be the ones building it.
That’s why I kept in touch with João and invited him to write this feature for Millennial Masters. It’s a primer on what’s broken in space law, what’s really at stake, and what needs to happen before businesses and nations turn the final frontier into chaos. Let’s go! 🚀
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Space has changed. The rules haven’t.
Space law is stuck in the past. Most of the international treaties governing space were written during the Cold War, back when only two superpowers — the United States and the Soviet Union — were racing to the Moon. That rare moment of global unity led to the Outer Space Treaty (OTS) in 1967, designed to keep space peaceful and accessible to all.
But the world has changed. Today, private companies are launching more missions than governments, new spacefaring nations are emerging, and technological leaps have made commercial spaceflight and resource extraction a reality. The legal framework hasn’t kept up.
The OTS prohibits nuclear weapons in space and bans sovereign claims over celestial bodies, but it was written for a world where only a handful of nations could reach orbit. Its vague wording has led to loopholes, and it lacks enforcement mechanisms.
Without modern rules, space is becoming a free-for-all.
The space law gaps fuelling chaos
The Outer Space Treaty set the foundation, but its ambiguities are driving space policy in ways that weren’t intended.
Weapons in orbit — The treaty bans “weapons of mass destruction” but doesn’t mention conventional weapons. Military space programs are growing as a result.
Liability for space accidents — The Liability Convention (1972) makes countries responsible for damage caused by their space objects, but proving fault is increasingly difficult.
No global traffic system — The Registration Convention (1976) requires countries to register their satellites with the UN, but it was never designed for today’s private space industry. Thousands of satellites are being launched with no universal tracking system.
These blind spots leave space governance weak and reactive, creating risks for the future of exploration and commerce.
The law wasn’t built for SpaceX
Space isn’t just for governments anymore. The commercial sector is expanding fast, with companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and OneWeb launching missions that once belonged to NASA and Roscosmos. They’re pushing boundaries — from satellite mega-constellations to asteroid mining — but the legal system wasn’t built for this.
Under current law, governments regulate their own companies, meaning a private space firm is only accountable to its home nation. But what happens if a private company in one country causes damage to a satellite from another? Who enforces the rules?
The Artemis Accords (2020), led by the US, attempt to establish new guidelines for lunar exploration and commercial activities, but they aren’t universally accepted. China and Russia view them as an attempt to dominate space law. With no global agreement on commercial activity, the space industry is heading into uncertain territory.
Earth’s orbit is turning into a junkyard
There are thousands of defunct satellites and rocket fragments orbiting Earth at high speed, threatening operational satellites and human spaceflight. The risk of collisions is growing, and we’re getting closer to Kessler Syndrome — a chain reaction where debris makes parts of orbit unusable.
No one is taking responsibility.
The Liability Convention holds countries responsible for their space objects, but there’s no enforcement mechanism.
Space traffic control doesn’t exist at a global level. Companies and nations launch satellites with no coordinated tracking system.
Orbital slots are becoming scarce, yet launches continue to increase.
In 2021, Russia destroyed one of its own satellites in an anti-satellite missile test, creating over 1,500 debris fragments that forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take cover. This isn’t a future problem: it’s happening now, and the legal system isn’t built to handle it.
The Moon’s resources are up for grabs
The Moon is becoming a target for resource extraction. Countries and companies are planning to mine its materials, from helium-3 to rare earth metals, but no clear regulations exist to govern the process.
The Moon Agreement (1979) attempted to declare lunar resources as “the common heritage of humankind,” but it failed. The major spacefaring nations — the US, Russia, and China — refused to sign.
Instead, the US introduced the Artemis Accords, which propose “safety zones” to prevent interference between lunar operations. Some see this as a step toward responsible exploration, others as a way to stake territorial claims.
Meanwhile, China and Russia are developing their own lunar programs outside of US-led initiatives. The lack of a unified approach raises the risk of disputes over lunar resources in the future.
Europe has rules without rockets
Europe has been a leader in space policy, but it’s struggling to compete in commercial spaceflight. The European Space Agency (ESA) has been successful in scientific missions and Earth observation, yet it relies on foreign launch providers, especially since ending its partnership with Russia.
The EU is working on a comprehensive space law to regulate commercial activity, space traffic, and sustainability. If successful, it could set a global standard for responsible space governance.
But Europe’s ability to influence space policy depends on more than regulations. To stay competitive, it needs to develop its own launch capabilities, stabilise supply chains, and increase investment in research and development. Without this, it risks becoming a rule-maker without real influence.
Lessons from Earth, laws for space
We’ve faced similar governance challenges before — in Antarctica and the world’s oceans.
The Antarctic Treaty (1959) bans military activity and territorial claims, ensuring the continent is used for peaceful scientific research.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) manages maritime zones and protects marine resources, establishing shared responsibility among nations.
A modern space treaty could take lessons from both, defining global responsibilities for commercial activity, space traffic management, and environmental protection. It could also create a regulatory body to oversee enforcement, something missing from the current system. The challenge is finding consensus.
The US wants to lead through the Artemis Accords, China and Russia are pursuing independent strategies, and Europe is balancing its role between policy leadership and commercial limitations. Finding common ground will take more than diplomacy — it requires legal innovation and a commitment to preventing space from becoming the next geopolitical battleground.
The new space race will shape everything
Space is no longer just about exploration. It’s a battleground for political influence, economic expansion, and security interests. The rules written today will decide whether space remains a shared domain or becomes a stage for geopolitical conflict.
The choice is clear: collaborate to create a sustainable and equitable legal system — or compete in a way that leads to disputes, environmental damage, and instability.
Space governance is at a crossroads. What happens next will define the future of space exploration, business, and security for generations to come.
👤 About João Lupi
João Lupi is a senior associate at Abreu Advogados in Lisbon, Portugal, specialising in space law, structured finance, and cross-border projects. As co-head of the firm’s Space & Satellites team, he advises leading companies on regulatory, investment, and dispute resolution matters in the rapidly evolving space sector.
With extensive experience in energy, natural resources, and sustainability, João is at the forefront of shaping legal frameworks for the new space economy. ESG certified and fluent in five languages, he’s a passionate advocate for responsible and innovative space governance.
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